Leaving Cert 2026:Grade Inflation … Here to Stay?

Leaving Certificate grades are coming down. But anyone expecting a return to the pre-Covid world of 2019 may be disappointed.

The post-marking adjustment introduced to maintain Leaving Certificate results following the pandemic is being progressively reduced. The Department of Education expects another reduction in 2026 and hopes that by 2027 a post-marking adjustment will no longer be necessary.

That sounds like a return to normal. The statistics suggest otherwise.

A very different points landscape

In 2019, the last Leaving Certificate before Covid, 1.4% of candidates achieved 600 points or more. Just 13.3% achieved 500 points or more.

By 2021, those figures had exploded to 5.7% at 600+ and 26.7% at 500+.

The correction since then is clear. By 2025, the figures had fallen to 3.9% at 600+ and 22.5% at 500+.

But compare 2025 with 2019 rather than with the extraordinary 2021 peak and a different picture emerges.

In 2019, 781 students achieved 600+ points. In 2025, there were 2,388.

At 500+, the number increased from 7,465 in 2019 to 13,699 in 2025.

So despite the gradual reduction in grades, Ireland still has a dramatically larger pool of students achieving very high CAO points.

If the same inflation rate was applied to a litre of petrol priced at €1.40 in 2019, it would now cost €3.91 per litre!.

Where does it end?

The important point is that 2019 is a pre-pandemic benchmark, not a target to which the Department has promised to return the grade distribution.

The Government intends 2026 aggregate outcomes to fall to just below 2020 levels. But 2020 itself was already substantially above 2019.

A further reduction is envisaged for 2027, when the Department hopes that post-marking adjustment will no longer be required.

However, there is a particularly significant detail: the Department has indicated that the underlying examination results before post-marking adjustment in 2025 were themselves slightly above 2019 levels.

Additional choice and other assessment adjustments will also continue in many subjects as Senior Cycle redevelopment progresses.

The eventual destination, therefore, may be a new normal rather than a return to the old one.

This will also be affected by the new revised subject specifications currently being introduced with higher project component (AAC). This I expect will also accelerate the proportion of students studying higher level across many subjects.

What does this mean for CAO points?

This is particularly important for students targeting courses such as Dentistry, Veterinary Medicine, Pharmacy, Dietetics and Medicine.

These courses have limited places. What ultimately drives their cut-off is not simply the percentage of the Leaving Certificate population achieving high grades. It is the actual number of highly qualified applicants competing for a limited number of places.

That is why the comparison between 781 students achieving 600+ in 2019 and 2,388 in 2025 is so significant.

While some places in high demand courses  have increased, they are not nearly matching the increased high points candidates who are applying for these places.

As grades fall, we should expect downward pressure on some CAO points. But course demand, the number of available places and the size of the high-achieving cohort will determine how far individual courses actually fall.

We should therefore be cautious about looking at old pre-Covid CAO points and assuming that those levels are about to return.

The exceptional grade inflation of the pandemic years is being unwound.

But higher grades may be here to stay. And that means high CAO points may prove considerably more stubborn than many expect.